Colorado State University   Mathematical

A Three-pronged Approach to Predicting the Spread of Mosquito-borne Diseases

By  Joceline Lega
From  University of Arizona
When  Monday, November 13, 2017
3:00 pm
Where  Weber 237

Aedes aegypti is a mosquito that can transmit diseases like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. This talk will present a three-pronged approach to the modeling of Aedes aegypti-borne diseases, resulting from a collaboration with colleagues in the College of Public Health and in the School of Geography and Development at the University of Arizona. Specifically, I will first discuss a mosquito abundance model that takes into account how meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) affect mosquito development and survival, and will describe its calibration against surveillance data in Puerto Rico. Then, I will present a simple nonlinear growth model that is able to capture trends in disease incidence reports at the level of a country, and illustrate its efficacy in predicting the 2014-15 chikungunya epidemic in the Caribbean and the Americas. Finally, I will show how a network-based approach that includes population flow between cities allows for a unified description of the spread of chikungunya and Zika in the small island nation of Dominica. This talk will be accessible to a broad audience of scientists interested in the mathematical modeling of mosquito-borne diseases.

Patrick Shipman